Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.6 | 3.5% | 47 | 0.41% | 73 | 0.63% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 20.1 | 14.8% | 201 | 1.48% | 289 | 2.12% |
| 20-29 | 27 | 36.9 | 25.6% | 346 | 1.65% | 478 | 2.28% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 24.3 | 16.2% | 219 | 1.61% | 340 | 2.5% |
| 40-49 | 19 | 18.9 | 13.1% | 177 | 1.69% | 266 | 2.54% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 16.6 | 11.4% | 154 | 1.23% | 242 | 1.93% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 15.0 | 9.3% | 126 | 1.09% | 182 | 1.58% |
| 70+ | 8 | 9.6 | 6.2% | 84 | 0.8% | 156 | 1.49% |
| All ages | 102 | 146.9 | 100% | 1354 | 1.29% | 2026 | 1.94% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.9 | 3.4% | 33 | 0.43% | 48 | 0.62% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 8.4 | 8.1% | 79 | 0.94% | 114 | 1.36% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 14.9 | 15.2% | 149 | 2.09% | 236 | 3.32% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 17.0 | 18.4% | 180 | 2.14% | 295 | 3.51% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 18.0 | 17.8% | 174 | 2.24% | 288 | 3.71% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 16.7 | 15.5% | 152 | 1.57% | 256 | 2.64% |
| 60-69 | 19 | 13.4 | 13.8% | 135 | 1.61% | 211 | 2.51% |
| 70+ | 11 | 10.0 | 8% | 78 | 1.1% | 117 | 1.65% |
| All ages | 113 | 101.3 | 100% | 980 | 1.52% | 1565 | 2.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.1 | 3.9% | 37 | 0.68% | 55 | 1.01% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 9.9 | 9.2% | 88 | 1.62% | 130 | 2.39% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 17.7 | 16.6% | 159 | 3.51% | 214 | 4.73% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 17.0 | 14.8% | 142 | 2.62% | 204 | 3.76% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 13.7 | 12.9% | 123 | 2.47% | 184 | 3.7% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 17.7 | 16% | 153 | 2.25% | 214 | 3.15% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 16.6 | 14.3% | 137 | 2.16% | 183 | 2.89% |
| 70+ | 4 | 12.3 | 12.3% | 118 | 1.86% | 146 | 2.3% |
| All ages | 33 | 109.0 | 100% | 957 | 2.12% | 1330 | 2.94% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 4.0 | 2.9% | 36 | 0.3% | 50 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 15.7 | 10.8% | 135 | 0.82% | 212 | 1.28% |
| 20-29 | 42 | 30.3 | 20.9% | 261 | 1.23% | 397 | 1.87% |
| 30-39 | 41 | 25.4 | 17% | 212 | 1.56% | 302 | 2.22% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 19.0 | 13% | 163 | 1.2% | 247 | 1.82% |
| 50-59 | 30 | 24.6 | 16.6% | 207 | 1.46% | 312 | 2.2% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 14.9 | 11% | 137 | 0.97% | 219 | 1.54% |
| 70+ | 16 | 11.1 | 7.9% | 99 | 0.76% | 162 | 1.25% |
| All ages | 192 | 145.0 | 100% | 1250 | 1.06% | 1901 | 1.61% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 37 | 21.9 | 4.9% | 226 | 0.38% | 321 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 123 | 84.7 | 16.6% | 772 | 1.09% | 1022 | 1.44% |
| 20-29 | 171 | 118.7 | 24.5% | 1141 | 1.1% | 1499 | 1.44% |
| 30-39 | 88 | 74.0 | 15.6% | 728 | 0.95% | 974 | 1.27% |
| 40-49 | 94 | 67.7 | 13.4% | 623 | 0.95% | 837 | 1.28% |
| 50-59 | 86 | 56.1 | 11.2% | 523 | 0.8% | 678 | 1.03% |
| 60-69 | 71 | 36.1 | 7.2% | 335 | 0.61% | 428 | 0.78% |
| 70+ | 37 | 31.6 | 6.6% | 308 | 0.63% | 403 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 707 | 490.9 | 100% | 4656 | 0.85% | 6162 | 1.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 298 | 255.3 | 4% | 2437 | 0.38% | 3389 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 787 | 745.6 | 11.8% | 7179 | 0.95% | 9775 | 1.29% |
| 20-29 | 1232 | 1111.3 | 17.7% | 10726 | 1.42% | 15175 | 2% |
| 30-39 | 1098 | 995.6 | 15.4% | 9334 | 1.23% | 13365 | 1.77% |
| 40-49 | 996 | 923.9 | 14.1% | 8577 | 1.23% | 12418 | 1.78% |
| 50-59 | 1095 | 1006.6 | 15.4% | 9362 | 1.15% | 13401 | 1.64% |
| 60-69 | 837 | 740.4 | 11.5% | 6965 | 0.92% | 9754 | 1.29% |
| 70+ | 748 | 650.7 | 10.1% | 6138 | 0.96% | 8504 | 1.33% |
| All ages | 7090 | 6429.3 | 100% | 60718 | 1.04% | 85781 | 1.47% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193.6 | 212.4 | 228.4 | 146.9 | 139.7 | 30.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 242 | 101.3 | 105.6 | 36.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 294 | 109 | 66 | 43.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160.8 | 128.1 | 186.5 | 145 | 100.1 | 30.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112.7 | 143.8 | 144.3 | 490.9 | 326.6 | 28.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147.3 | 129.1 | 200.5 | 6429.3 | 5139 | 34.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 7.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.46 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-08 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2661"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges